Impacts of climate change on environmental flows in West Africa's Upper Niger Basin and the Inner Niger Delta

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Modified water regimes due to climate change are likely be a major cause of freshwater ecosystem alteration. General Circulation Model (GCM)-related uncertainty in environmental flows at 12 gauging stations the Upper Niger Basin and flooding within Inner Delta is assessed using Ecological Risk Flow Alteration method hydrological model forced with projections from GCM groups for RCP 4.5 2050s 2080s. varies between stations. It increases into future larger changes low compared high flows. For ensemble mean, small minority projects no risk (low otherwise). This reverses flows, limited three one station 2080s, other experience either or medium risk. There greater consistency flood extent, especially dry season (medium all mean). Some medium) peak annual inundation projected most groups. Changing patterns have implications wetland ecology services.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Hydrology Research

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['0029-1277', '1996-9694']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2021.041